I ran this article just before Christmas 2022 exclusively on the Solar Saturday email newsletter. Since the story was commenting 2 weeks short of a full year the numbers were very close estimate. Now the final numbers are ready within the (brilliant) MCS Scheme Data Dashboard. Original story here: SS#1: 100k UK homes added solar in 2022! | Solar Saturday (beehiiv.com)
So, in an attempt to fully close the residential solar chapter of 2022, here are the *updated* numbers. The article remains the same just with updates.
[Begin] The year of the comeback... UK residential solar market returned in a huge way. COVID-19 created havoc in the Solar supply chain and still nearly 3 years later the effects are still evident (ask any installer!). Plus: price increases on energy, the invasion of Ukraine, and inflation, it left many homeowners choosing to install Solar PV.
To cut a long story short, the sharp increase in demand was hard on the supply chain. But here we are in December, with snow on the ground and some interesting metrics. The data came from the new Microgeneration Certification Scheme Data Dashboard. You can access the stats anytime for free here, or you can keep reading my future emails.
I promised a breakdown of my findings - so here we go:
Total Residential PV installs up by 125% in 2022
A reported 104,582 new Solar PV systems in residential installations this year alone, following installation of c.46,000 in 2021. In reality, this covers only installations registered at MCS. Typical exclusions: Self-installs and some 'New-build' homes.
Installation cost average (per kW installed) increased by 15%
We compared the average installation costs per kW [FY2021 average to FY2022 average] and saw the increases. In our personal and professional life we've seen the same, the solar supply chain is not immune. And dare I say, improved margins which helps to propel such an important industry in the future. And for 2023, the trend looks set to continue.
Average PV system size is 4.43kw
OK this one surprised me too. For a long time, the default system size was 4kw. Perhaps as a legacy to the 'old' Feed-in tariff scheme [2010-2018 RIP] which 'capped' system sizes. But with significant increases in electricity cost (price cap anyone?) it's no surprise that homeowners are increasing their PV size. Note here that Storage isn't recorded by MCS. Anecdotally, installers shared estimates that 60-80% of new PV sales include storage.
463MW installed this year to UK homes
This is a staggering volume considering it the market size of the UK only a few years ago. In line with some of our European neighbours, but with no gov incentives or a supportive tax policy. Key driver: very high electricity cost but the wider sentiment is moving towards Energy Independence (F.. You Fossil fuels!), Electrification of heat and transport (EV).
596 new PV installer businesses in the UK this year
Given the high-profile upturn in the UK market, it's no surprise that it left MCS with a large number of applications to join the Solar PV certification scheme. Many new installers are new entities (SMEs) but also many electricians, heat pump installers etc adding Solar PV to their portfolios. We see here that 596 new entities or individuals gained the accreditation.
Total number of PV Installers now 1,844, up 39.9% in 2022.
This year there were several prominent installers in my network that quoted lead times for new installs of 4-6 months. They quoted enquiry levels jumping around 10x over previous years - in a nutshell they were inundated.
Note: Analysis should not be relied upon. There are always different ways to analyse the data we thoroughly recommend you check the source data on the dashboard for yourself.
Credit Photo by Daria Nepriakhina 🇺🇦 on Unsplash
Credit to MCS and MCS Data Dashboard for statistical information.
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