We're seeing some interesting developments on the solar horizon, with China recently indicating that it could be mulling an export ban on its solar wafer technology. This possibility has made waves amongst both people working in the industry, as well as those watching from the sidelines – and we would like to take a closer look at how this potential move might affect both current and future markets for solar power production. We'll explore what could happen if an export ban is imposed, and which players around the world are likely to benefit most from such a restriction. Join us as we delve deeper into understanding why China is weighing up an import ban—and ultimately interpreting where this windswept chapter of solar may lead!
Towards the end of last week we were tracking a story that was initially unfolding via Bloomberg (Paywalled Link: China Mulls Protecting Solar Tech Dominance With Export Ban - Bloomberg).
The Bloomberg coverage suggests that "China's Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Science and Technology are seeking public comment on adding some manufacturing method key to producing advanced solar wafers on it's list of technologies it prohibits exporting."
It is believed that these proposed measures are in response to protect the Chinese solar manufacturing industry from countries such as the US, EU and India from developing their own supply industries given China's dominance. The move would directly slow down other countries in creating their own supply chains.
The measures are in public consultation phase and no decisions have been announced. So, what are the concerns of those in the UK solar industry?
Ultimately this is not an export ban on modules, it relates solely on the wafer of the solar module, and more specifically the technology used to create it. Over recent years, China-based manufacturers have invested heavily in wafer technologies to enable higher yields in their products. This is a move to protect those investments.
It is expected that non-domestic manufacturers may be limited in their ability to grow solar wafer manufacturing in countries like the US, Europe and many more. It would make it diffcult for such manufacturers to compete with yields and outputs of products from many of the larger wafer suppliers.
The net result may be that manufacturers outside of China are not able to scale to similar technology levels (yields) and therefore will have lower power ratings and performance characteristics in general creating a market gap.
As it stands - distributors here in the UK are not forecasting any changes to their product supply as a result of this rumoured export ban.
We do not yet know any more detail, but will report as they develop this story. What is your view? Do you think your projects or business will be affected? Share it with us via LinkedIn: Go to post.
Photo by Anja Bauermann on Unsplash
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